Udinese 1–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

J. Larsen 56'

E. Fernandes 65'

2/3/2019

Serie A · Round 22Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese40%

×Draw27%

Fiorentina33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.17

Udinese

1.30

Fiorentina

1.17

Udinese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

1.10

1.23

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Fiorentina

1.10

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Fiorentina

1.47

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

67%

Udinese or Fiorentina

73%

Draw or Fiorentina

60%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

18%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

73%

Udinese 2+ goals

37%

Udinese 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

69%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

33%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

54%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.10 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udinese scores more

40%

level

27%

Fiorentina scores more

33%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. Fernandes

Fiorentina · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

Nikola Milenković

43'

Rolando Mandragora

46'

G. Simeone← K. Mirallas

56'

J. Larsen

59'

Gerson

59'

Vincent Laurini

59'

M. Pjaca← Gerson

65'

74'

74'

80'

83'

F. Ceccherini← V. Laurini

84'

K. Lasagna← I. Pussetto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseFiorentina

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots14

1Corners10

12Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target4

6Off Target6

2Blocked4

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

333Total Passes457

234Accurate Passes376

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Udinese vs Fiorentina

Udinese and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in Serie A on February 3, 2019.

Goals: J. Larsen (56'), E. Fernandes (65').

Fiorentina controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Fiorentina