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Udinese vs Crotone — Serie A 2018

Udinese
Udinese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crotone
Crotone
12/15/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 12Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Udinese57%
×Draw21%
Crotone21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
2.06
Crotone
1.18

Udinese creates 75% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 19 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.13
Crotone
1.16

allows per match

Udinese
1.20
Crotone
3.00

finishing

Udinese+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
79%
Udinese or Crotone
79%
Draw or Crotone
43%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
35%
Crotone wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
87%
Udinese 2+ goals
61%
Udinese 3+ goals
34%
Crotone 1+ goals
69%
Crotone 2+ goals
33%
Crotone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
73%
Crotone (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 139 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Crotone defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Crotone attack 1.16 + Udinese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Udinese scores more
57%
level
21%
Crotone scores more
21%

Udinese at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udinese vs Crotone

Udinese and Crotone drew 0-0 in Serie A on December 15, 2020.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.