Udinese 3–0 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Cremonese

4/23/2023

Serie A · Round 31Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Udinese47%

×Draw27%

Cremonese25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Udinese

1.38

Cremonese

0.93

Udinese creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

0.70

1.17

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Cremonese

0.70

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Cremonese

1.66

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Cremonese+0.04on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

75%

Udinese or Cremonese

73%

Draw or Cremonese

53%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

23%

Cremonese wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Cremonese 1+ goals

61%

Cremonese 2+ goals

24%

Cremonese 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

65%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Cremonese away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Cremonese defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cremonese attack 0.70 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Udinese scores more

47%

level

27%

Cremonese scores more

25%

Udinese at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff