Udinese U20 1–6 Roma U20: Result & Stats

Udinese U20

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Roma U20

12/14/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 15Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Udinese U2013%

×Draw17%

Roma U2070%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U20Expected goals in this matchRoma U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.60

Udinese U20

1.06

Roma U20

2.60

Roma U20 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

2.26

2.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Udinese U20

0.89

Roma U20

2.26

allows per match

Udinese U20

2.95

Roma U20

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U20+0.00on par

Roma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U20 ↓

Roma U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Udinese U20 or draw

30%

Udinese U20 or Roma U20

83%

Draw or Roma U20

87%

Winning margin

Udinese U20 wins by 2+

5%

Roma U20 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Udinese U20 1+ goals

65%

Udinese U20 2+ goals

29%

Udinese U20 3+ goals

9%

Roma U20 1+ goals

92%

Roma U20 2+ goals

73%

Roma U20 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Udinese U20 (draw refunded)

16%

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

Roma U20 away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U20 attack 0.89 + Roma U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Roma U20 attack 2.26 + Udinese U20 defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Udinese U20 scores more

13%

level

17%

Roma U20 scores more

70%

Roma U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff