Udinese U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Udinese U2023%
Monza U2056%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Monza U20 creates 64% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Udinese U20 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Udinese U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches
Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Udinese U20 attack 0.89 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28
Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Udinese U20 defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Monza U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Sampdoria U19
Internazionale U19
Juventus U19
Roma U19
Atalanta U19
Empoli U19
SPAL U19
Sassuolo U19
Genoa U19
Milan U19
Cagliari U19
Fiorentina U19
Torino U19
Bologna U19
Lazio U19
Ascoli U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Udinese U20 host Monza U20 on Monday, 24 February 2025 at 11:00. The match is part of the Campionato Primavera - 1 2020/2021 season.
Campionato Primavera - 1: Udinese U20 3–2 Monza U20
Udinese U20 beat Monza U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 24, 2025.
Goals: L. Bonin (4'), S. Cosentino (34'), G. Vinciati (43'), T. Lupinetti (65'), M. Gaye (90+1').
The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Casarsa della Delizia.