Udinese U20 0–4 Cremonese U20: Result & Stats

Udinese U20

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Cremonese U20

5/10/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 37Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Udinese U2024%

×Draw22%

Cremonese U2054%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U20Expected goals in this matchCremonese U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.99

Udinese U20

1.25

Cremonese U20

1.99

Cremonese U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

2.95

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Udinese U20

0.89

Cremonese U20

1.03

allows per match

Udinese U20

2.95

Cremonese U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U20+0.00on par

Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U20 ↓

Cremonese U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Udinese U20 or draw

46%

Udinese U20 or Cremonese U20

78%

Draw or Cremonese U20

76%

Winning margin

Udinese U20 wins by 2+

10%

Cremonese U20 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Udinese U20 1+ goals

71%

Udinese U20 2+ goals

36%

Udinese U20 3+ goals

13%

Cremonese U20 1+ goals

86%

Cremonese U20 2+ goals

59%

Cremonese U20 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Udinese U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

Cremonese U20 away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U20 attack 0.89 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cremonese U20 attack 1.03 + Udinese U20 defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Udinese U20 scores more

24%

level

22%

Cremonese U20 scores more

54%

Cremonese U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cremonese U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff