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Udinese U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Udinese U20
Udinese U20
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
9/23/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Udinese U2020%
×Draw20%
Atalanta U2059%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese U20
1.18
Atalanta U20
2.16

Atalanta U20 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Udinese U20
0.89
Atalanta U20
1.37

allows per match

Udinese U20
2.95
Atalanta U20
1.47

finishing

Udinese U20+0.00on par
Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Udinese U20 or draw
41%
Udinese U20 or Atalanta U20
80%
Draw or Atalanta U20
80%

Winning margin

Udinese U20 wins by 2+
8%
Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Udinese U20 1+ goals
69%
Udinese U20 2+ goals
33%
Udinese U20 3+ goals
12%
Atalanta U20 1+ goals
88%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
63%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Udinese U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U20 attack 0.89 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Udinese U20 defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Udinese U20 scores more
20%
level
20%
Atalanta U20 scores more
59%

Atalanta U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Udinese U20 1–4 Atalanta U20

Atalanta U20 beat Udinese U20 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.