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Udinese U19 vs Venezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Udinese U19
Udinese U19
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Venezia U19
Venezia U19
2/17/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Udinese U1950%
×Draw22%
Venezia U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese U19
1.93
Venezia U19
1.39

Udinese U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 85 away

creates per match

Udinese U19
2.18
Venezia U19
1.58

allows per match

Udinese U19
1.20
Venezia U19
1.68

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par
Venezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Venezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw
72%
Udinese U19 or Venezia U19
78%
Draw or Venezia U19
50%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+
28%
Venezia U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals
85%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
57%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
30%
Venezia U19 1+ goals
75%
Venezia U19 2+ goals
40%
Venezia U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Venezia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Venezia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Venezia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.93

Venezia U19 attack 1.58 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Udinese U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Venezia U19 scores more
28%

Udinese U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Udinese U19 3–4 Venezia U19

Venezia U19 beat Udinese U19 4-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.