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Udinese U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Udinese U19
Udinese U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
5/11/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 30Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Udinese U1948%
×Draw24%
SPAL U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese U19
1.73
SPAL U19
1.27

Udinese U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 46 away

creates per match

Udinese U19
2.18
SPAL U19
1.35

allows per match

Udinese U19
1.20
SPAL U19
1.28

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw
72%
Udinese U19 or SPAL U19
76%
Draw or SPAL U19
52%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+
26%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals
82%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
52%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
25%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
72%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
36%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
63%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + SPAL U19 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.73

SPAL U19 attack 1.35 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Udinese U19 scores more
48%
level
24%
SPAL U19 scores more
28%

Udinese U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Udinese U19 2–0 SPAL U19

Udinese U19 beat SPAL U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.