Udinese U19 1–1 Pordenone U19: Result & Stats

Udinese U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pordenone U19

3/5/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Centro Sportivo Comunale Capocasale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Udinese U1961%

×Draw20%

Pordenone U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U19Expected goals in this matchPordenone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.19

Udinese U19

2.27

Pordenone U19

1.19

Udinese U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

2.18

creates per match

1.18

1.20

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Udinese U19

2.18

Pordenone U19

1.18

allows per match

Udinese U19

1.20

Pordenone U19

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Pordenone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Pordenone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw

81%

Udinese U19 or Pordenone U19

80%

Draw or Pordenone U19

39%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

39%

Pordenone U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals

90%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

66%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

39%

Pordenone U19 1+ goals

70%

Pordenone U19 2+ goals

33%

Pordenone U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Pordenone U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.27

Pordenone U19 attack 1.18 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Udinese U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

Pordenone U19 scores more

19%

Udinese U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff