Udinese U19 4–2 Parma U19: Result & Stats

Udinese U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Parma U19

4/2/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 23Centro Sportivo Comunale Capocasale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Udinese U1938%

×Draw23%

Parma U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U19Expected goals in this matchParma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

Udinese U19

1.60

Parma U19

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 70 away

2.18

creates per match

2.00

1.20

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Udinese U19

2.18

Parma U19

2.00

allows per match

Udinese U19

1.20

Parma U19

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Parma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw

62%

Udinese U19 or Parma U19

77%

Draw or Parma U19

62%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

19%

Parma U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals

80%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

47%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

22%

Parma U19 1+ goals

80%

Parma U19 2+ goals

47%

Parma U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Parma U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.60

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Parma U19 scores more

38%

Udinese U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff