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Udinese U19 vs Lecco U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Udinese U19
Udinese U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Lecco U19
Lecco U19
9/20/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 2Stadio UPC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Udinese U1946%
×Draw22%
Lecco U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese U19
1.93
Lecco U19
1.56

Udinese U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Udinese U19
2.18
Lecco U19
1.93

allows per match

Udinese U19
1.20
Lecco U19
1.67

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par
Lecco U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Lecco U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw
68%
Udinese U19 or Lecco U19
78%
Draw or Lecco U19
54%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+
26%
Lecco U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals
85%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
57%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
30%
Lecco U19 1+ goals
79%
Lecco U19 2+ goals
46%
Lecco U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Lecco U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Lecco U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Lecco U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lecco U19 attack 1.93 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Udinese U19 scores more
46%
level
22%
Lecco U19 scores more
32%

Udinese U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udinese U19 vs Lecco U19

Lecco U19 beat Udinese U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio UPC in Tavagnacco.