Udinese U19 vs Lecce U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Udinese U1929%
Lecce U1946%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lecce U19 creates 30% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Udinese U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Udinese U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches
Lecce U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Udinese U19 attack 1.00 + Lecce U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23
Lecce U19 attack 1.37 + Udinese U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Lecce U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Fiorentina U20
Parma U20
Cesena U20
Bologna U20
Roma U20
Internazionale U20
Atalanta U20
Juventus U20
Lecce U20
Genoa U20
Milan U20
Hellas Verona U20
Torino U20
Lazio U20
Monza U20
Sassuolo U20
Cagliari U20
Napoli U20
Frosinone U20
Cremonese U20If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Udinese U19 host Lecce U19 on Monday, 3 October 2022 at 10:30. The match is part of the Campionato Primavera - 1 2020/2021 season.
Campionato Primavera - 1: Udinese U19 0–2 Lecce U19
Lecce U19 beat Udinese U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 3, 2022.
Goals: R. Burnete (65'), D. Daka (90+3').
The match was played at Campo Sportivo Simonetti in Gemona del Friuli.