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Udinese U19 vs Chievo Verona U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Udinese U19
Udinese U19
FT
1 – 3
Chievo Verona U19
Chievo Verona U19
4/10/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 17Campo Sportivo Via Comelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Udinese U1942%
×Draw21%
Chievo Verona U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese U19
2.04
Chievo Verona U19
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 11 away

creates per match

Udinese U19
2.18
Chievo Verona U19
2.64

allows per match

Udinese U19
1.20
Chievo Verona U19
1.91

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par
Chievo Verona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Chievo Verona U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw
63%
Udinese U19 or Chievo Verona U19
79%
Draw or Chievo Verona U19
58%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+
23%
Chievo Verona U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals
87%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
60%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
33%
Chievo Verona U19 1+ goals
85%
Chievo Verona U19 2+ goals
57%
Chievo Verona U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Chievo Verona U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Chievo Verona U19 away — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Chievo Verona U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Chievo Verona U19 attack 2.64 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udinese U19 scores more
42%
level
21%
Chievo Verona U19 scores more
37%

Udinese U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udinese U19 vs Chievo Verona U19

Chievo Verona U19 beat Udinese U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Via Comelli in Fagagna.