Udinese U19 3–1 Alessandria U19: Result & Stats

Udinese U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alessandria U19

3/16/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 23Campo Comunale B Fagagna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Udinese U1962%

×Draw19%

Alessandria U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U19Expected goals in this matchAlessandria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.18

Udinese U19

2.31

Alessandria U19

1.18

Udinese U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

2.18

creates per match

1.16

1.20

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Udinese U19

2.18

Alessandria U19

1.16

allows per match

Udinese U19

1.20

Alessandria U19

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Alessandria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw

82%

Udinese U19 or Alessandria U19

81%

Draw or Alessandria U19

38%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

40%

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals

90%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

67%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

40%

Alessandria U19 1+ goals

69%

Alessandria U19 2+ goals

33%

Alessandria U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Alessandria U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.31

Alessandria U19 attack 1.16 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Udinese U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Alessandria U19 scores more

18%

Udinese U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff