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Arda Kardzhali vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
1 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
9/21/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali68%
×Draw23%
Chernomorets Balchik10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.69
Chernomorets Balchik
0.46

Arda Kardzhali creates 267% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.33
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
90%
Arda Kardzhali or Chernomorets Balchik
77%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
32%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
39%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
82%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
50%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
24%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
37%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
8%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
88%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
68%
level
23%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
10%

Arda Kardzhali at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Arda Kardzhali beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Second League on September 21, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Arda (Kardzhali).