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UDI '19 vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UDI '19
UDI '19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
2/26/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 23Sportpark Parkzicht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

UDI '1940%
×Draw23%
GVV Unitas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UDI '19
1.66
GVV Unitas
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 54 away

creates per match

UDI '19
1.26
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

UDI '19
1.94
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

UDI '19+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UDI '19 ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UDI '19 or draw
63%
UDI '19 or GVV Unitas
77%
Draw or GVV Unitas
60%

Winning margin

UDI '19 wins by 2+
20%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UDI '19 1+ goals
81%
UDI '19 2+ goals
49%
UDI '19 3+ goals
23%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
79%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
47%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

UDI '19 (draw refunded)
52%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UDI '19 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UDI '19 attack 1.26 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + UDI '19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UDI '19 scores more
40%
level
23%
GVV Unitas scores more
37%

UDI '19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UDI '19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: UDI '19 0–0 GVV Unitas

UDI '19 and GVV Unitas drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Parkzicht in Uden.