Uddevalla W 2–0 Gamla Upsala W: Result & Stats

Uddevalla W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gamla Upsala W

6/17/2023

Elitettan · Round 11Fridhemsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Uddevalla W38%

×Draw24%

Gamla Upsala W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uddevalla WExpected goals in this matchGamla Upsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.59

Uddevalla W

1.57

Gamla Upsala W

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

1.08

creates per match

1.42

1.77

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Uddevalla W

1.08

Gamla Upsala W

1.42

allows per match

Uddevalla W

1.77

Gamla Upsala W

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uddevalla W+0.00on par

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uddevalla W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Uddevalla W or draw

61%

Uddevalla W or Gamla Upsala W

76%

Draw or Gamla Upsala W

62%

Winning margin

Uddevalla W wins by 2+

18%

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Uddevalla W 1+ goals

79%

Uddevalla W 2+ goals

46%

Uddevalla W 3+ goals

21%

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

80%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

47%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Uddevalla W (draw refunded)

49%

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uddevalla W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uddevalla W attack 1.08 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + Uddevalla W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uddevalla W scores more

38%

level

24%

Gamla Upsala W scores more

39%

Gamla Upsala W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gamla Upsala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff