UD Santa Marta 2–1 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Palencia CF

5/2/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UD Santa Marta42%

×Draw29%

Palencia CF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.96

UD Santa Marta

1.22

Palencia CF

0.96

UD Santa Marta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 84 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

0.99

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Palencia CF →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

71%

UD Santa Marta or Palencia CF

71%

Draw or Palencia CF

58%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

18%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

70%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

34%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

12%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

62%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

25%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

59%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

42%

level

29%

Palencia CF scores more

29%

UD Santa Marta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff