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UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

UD Santa Marta43%
×Draw28%
Mirandés II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Santa Marta
1.29
Mirandés II
1.02

UD Santa Marta creates 26% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 112 away

creates per match

UD Santa Marta
1.24
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

UD Santa Marta
0.99
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw
71%
UD Santa Marta or Mirandés II
72%
Draw or Mirandés II
57%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
19%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
72%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
37%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
14%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
64%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
27%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
59%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more
43%
level
28%
Mirandés II scores more
29%

UD Santa Marta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Mirandés II

UD Santa Marta and Mirandés II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.