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UD Santa Marta vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
5/22/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

UD Santa Marta58%
×Draw24%
La Granja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Santa Marta
1.71
La Granja
0.83

UD Santa Marta creates 106% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 31 away

creates per match

UD Santa Marta
1.24
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

UD Santa Marta
0.99
La Granja
2.19

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw
82%
UD Santa Marta or La Granja
76%
Draw or La Granja
42%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
33%
La Granja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
82%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
51%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
24%
La Granja 1+ goals
56%
La Granja 2+ goals
20%
La Granja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
76%
La Granja (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

La Granja attack 0.68 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more
58%
level
24%
La Granja scores more
18%

UD Santa Marta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Santa Marta 0 – 0 La Granja

UD Santa Marta and La Granja drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.