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UD Santa Marta vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
12/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

UD Santa Marta52%
×Draw27%
La Bañeza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Santa Marta
1.46
La Bañeza
0.83

UD Santa Marta creates 76% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 31 away

creates per match

UD Santa Marta
1.24
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

UD Santa Marta
0.99
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw
79%
UD Santa Marta or La Bañeza
73%
Draw or La Bañeza
48%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
26%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
77%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
43%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
18%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
56%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
20%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
71%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more
52%
level
27%
La Bañeza scores more
21%

UD Santa Marta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
L. Galiano← Yago Trigueros
62'
Hamelín← Adrián Rojo
66'
Marcos Ordás← Samuel Mayo
70'
Mito Martín← Asensio
77'
Pablo Gonzalez← Mario
77'
Lorento← Ricardo
UD
La
Camilo
Camilo
Garrido
Garrido
Pablo González
González
Mateo
Mateo
Viti
Viti
Aitor García
García
Samuel Mayo
▼
Mayo
Adrián Rojo
▼
Rojo
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Ricardo
▼
Ricardo
David Borge
Borge
Tomás González
González
David Morante
Morante
Lolo
Lolo
Asensio
▼
Asensio
Sergio Montes
Montes
Jorge Martin
Martin
Raúl Arroyo
Arroyo
Jorge García
García
Ángel Lerma
Lerma
Yago Trigueros
▼
Trigueros
Mario
▼
Mario
Arturo Martín
Manager: Arturo Martín
50'▲L. Galiano←▼Yago Trigueros
70'▲Mito Martín←▼Asensio
77'▲Pablo Gonzalez←▼Mario

UD Santa Marta substitutes

GalianoMartínGonzalez
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
62'▲Hamelín←▼Adrián Rojo
66'▲Marcos Ordás←▼Samuel Mayo
77'▲Lorento←▼Ricardo

La Bañeza substitutes

HamelínOrdásLorento

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: UD Santa Marta 0–0 La Bañeza

UD Santa Marta and La Bañeza drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.