UD Santa Marta 1–2 Cristo Atlético: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cristo Atlético

2/28/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

UD Santa Marta33%

×Draw29%

Cristo Atlético38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchCristo Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.18

UD Santa Marta

1.09

Cristo Atlético

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 80 away

1.24

creates per match

1.36

0.99

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Cristo Atlético

1.36

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Cristo Atlético

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Cristo Atlético →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

62%

UD Santa Marta or Cristo Atlético

71%

Draw or Cristo Atlético

67%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

13%

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

66%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

30%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

10%

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

69%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

33%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

47%

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

33%

level

29%

Cristo Atlético scores more

38%

Cristo Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Cristo Atlético

Cristo Atlético beat UD Santa Marta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Cristo Atlético