UD Santa Marta 3–1 Atlético Tordesillas

UD Santa Marta

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Tordesillas

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 38Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

UD Santa Marta38%

×Draw29%

Atlético Tordesillas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tordesillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

UD Santa Marta

1.16

Atlético Tordesillas

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 110 away

1.24

creates per match

1.13

0.99

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Atlético Tordesillas

1.13

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Atlético Tordesillas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

67%

UD Santa Marta or Atlético Tordesillas

71%

Draw or Atlético Tordesillas

62%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

69%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

32%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

38%

level

29%

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

33%

UD Santa Marta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Tordesillas

UD Santa Marta beat Atlético Tordesillas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Atlético Tordesillas