UD Santa Marta 2–0 Almazán: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Almazán

Hugo Villardón 75'

Mito Martín 16'

9/9/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

UD Santa Marta44%

×Draw28%

Almazán28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchAlmazán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

UD Santa Marta

1.29

Almazán

0.98

UD Santa Marta creates 32% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 113 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

0.99

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Almazán

0.97

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Almazán

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Almazán →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

72%

UD Santa Marta or Almazán

72%

Draw or Almazán

56%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

20%

Almazán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

72%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

37%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

14%

Almazán 1+ goals

62%

Almazán 2+ goals

26%

Almazán 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

61%

Almazán (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Almazán attack 0.97 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

44%

level

28%

Almazán scores more

28%

UD Santa Marta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Mito Martín

62'

Diego Mateo← J. Junyent

72'

Javi Gómez← Saúl García

72'

Hugo Villardón← Tomi

75'

Hugo Villardón

79'

Léo Bahia← Carlos Elvira

83'

Joel Gómez← Chopi

83'

Álvaro Ramos← Astu

84'

Jesús Sánchez← E. Sidibeh

84'

Ángel Losilla← Diego Ciria

84'

B. Diao← Josua Pérez

88'

Álvaro Moreno← Mito Martín

Almazán

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alonso Fernández

72'▲Javi Gómez←▼Saúl García

72'▲Hugo Villardón←▼Tomi

83'▲Joel Gómez←▼Chopi

83'▲Álvaro Ramos←▼Astu

88'▲Álvaro Moreno←▼Mito Martín

UD Santa Marta substitutes

GómezVillardónGómezRamosMoreno

Manager: Pablo Cortés

62'▲Diego Mateo←▼J. Junyent

79'▲Léo Bahia←▼Carlos Elvira

84'▲Jesús Sánchez←▼E. Sidibeh

84'▲Ángel Losilla←▼Diego Ciria

84'▲B. Diao←▼Josua Pérez

Almazán substitutes

MateoBahiaSánchezLosillaDiao

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Almazán

UD Santa Marta beat Almazán 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 9, 2023.

Goals: Mito Martín (16'), Hugo Villardón (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Almazán