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Almazán vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Almazán51%
×Draw25%
UD Santa Marta24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.56
UD Santa Marta
0.99

Almazán creates 58% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 115 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
76%
Almazán or UD Santa Marta
75%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
49%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
26%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
79%
Almazán 2+ goals
46%
Almazán 3+ goals
21%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
63%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
26%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
68%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Almazán scores more
51%
level
25%
UD Santa Marta scores more
24%

Almazán at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almazán vs UD Santa Marta

Almazán beat UD Santa Marta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.