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UD San Pedro vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

UD San Pedro
UD San Pedro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Almería II
Almería II
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

UD San Pedro39%
×Draw27%
Almería II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Pedro
1.27
Almería II
1.15

UD San Pedro creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 75 away

creates per match

UD San Pedro
1.24
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

UD San Pedro
0.79
Almería II
1.29

finishing

UD San Pedro+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Pedro ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD San Pedro or draw
67%
UD San Pedro or Almería II
73%
Draw or Almería II
61%

Winning margin

UD San Pedro wins by 2+
17%
Almería II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

UD San Pedro 1+ goals
72%
UD San Pedro 2+ goals
36%
UD San Pedro 3+ goals
14%
Almería II 1+ goals
68%
Almería II 2+ goals
32%
Almería II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UD San Pedro (draw refunded)
54%
Almería II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Pedro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Pedro attack 1.24 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almería II attack 1.51 + UD San Pedro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UD San Pedro scores more
39%
level
27%
Almería II scores more
33%

UD San Pedro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD San Pedro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Almería II

Almería II beat UD San Pedro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.