UD San Pedro 1–0 Alhaurín: Result & Stats

UD San Pedro

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alhaurín

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

UD San Pedro57%

×Draw24%

Alhaurín19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San PedroExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.89

UD San Pedro

1.73

Alhaurín

0.89

UD San Pedro creates 94% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

1.24

creates per match

0.98

0.79

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

UD San Pedro

1.24

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

UD San Pedro

0.79

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Pedro+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Pedro ↓

Alhaurín →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UD San Pedro or draw

81%

UD San Pedro or Alhaurín

76%

Draw or Alhaurín

43%

Winning margin

UD San Pedro wins by 2+

32%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Pedro 1+ goals

82%

UD San Pedro 2+ goals

52%

UD San Pedro 3+ goals

25%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

59%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

22%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Pedro (draw refunded)

75%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Pedro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Pedro attack 1.24 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + UD San Pedro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

UD San Pedro scores more

57%

level

24%

Alhaurín scores more

19%

UD San Pedro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UD San Pedro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Alhaurín

UD San Pedro beat Alhaurín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.

UD San Pedro vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Alhaurín