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UD San Fernando vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

UD San Fernando58%
×Draw24%
Unión Sur Yaiza18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.66
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.79

UD San Fernando creates 110% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 65 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
82%
UD San Fernando or Unión Sur Yaiza
76%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
42%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
32%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
81%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
49%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
23%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
55%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
19%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
77%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
58%
level
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
18%

UD San Fernando at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–2 Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat UD San Fernando 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.