UD San Fernando 1–0 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

UD San Fernando

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Úrsula

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando60%

×Draw23%

Santa Úrsula17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.80

UD San Fernando

1.75

Santa Úrsula

0.80

UD San Fernando creates 119% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 92 away

1.99

creates per match

0.90

0.71

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

83%

UD San Fernando or Santa Úrsula

77%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

40%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

34%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

83%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

52%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

25%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

55%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

19%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

78%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

60%

level

23%

Santa Úrsula scores more

17%

UD San Fernando at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Santa Úrsula

UD San Fernando beat Santa Úrsula 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.

UD San Fernando vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Santa Úrsula