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UD San Fernando vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Ibarra
Ibarra
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando65%
×Draw21%
Ibarra14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.99
Ibarra
0.79

UD San Fernando creates 152% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Ibarra
0.88

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Ibarra
1.99

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Ibarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
86%
UD San Fernando or Ibarra
79%
Draw or Ibarra
35%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
40%
Ibarra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
86%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
59%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
32%
Ibarra 1+ goals
55%
Ibarra 2+ goals
19%
Ibarra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
82%
Ibarra (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.99

Ibarra attack 0.88 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
65%
level
21%
Ibarra scores more
14%

UD San Fernando at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 4–2 Ibarra

UD San Fernando beat Ibarra 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.