Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ibarra vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
10/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ibarra33%
×Draw29%
UD San Fernando39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.07
UD San Fernando
1.20

UD San Fernando creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
61%
Ibarra or UD San Fernando
71%
Draw or UD San Fernando
67%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
13%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
66%
Ibarra 2+ goals
29%
Ibarra 3+ goals
9%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
70%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
34%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
45%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ibarra scores more
33%
level
29%
UD San Fernando scores more
39%

UD San Fernando at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 0–3 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Ibarra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.