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UD San Fernando vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UD San Fernando73%
×Draw18%
Estrella9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
2.19
Estrella
0.64

UD San Fernando creates 242% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Estrella
2.38

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
91%
UD San Fernando or Estrella
82%
Draw or Estrella
27%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
48%
Estrella wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
89%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
64%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
37%
Estrella 1+ goals
47%
Estrella 2+ goals
14%
Estrella 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
88%
Estrella (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Estrella attack 0.56 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
73%
level
18%
Estrella scores more
9%

UD San Fernando at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD San Fernando 6 – 1 Estrella

UD San Fernando beat Estrella 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.