UD San Fernando 0–2 Atlético Paso: Result & Stats

UD San Fernando

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Paso

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

UD San Fernando50%

×Draw26%

Atlético Paso23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Paso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.92

UD San Fernando

1.48

Atlético Paso

0.92

UD San Fernando creates 61% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

1.99

creates per match

1.12

0.71

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

Atlético Paso

1.12

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

Atlético Paso

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Atlético Paso →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

77%

UD San Fernando or Atlético Paso

74%

Draw or Atlético Paso

50%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

25%

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

77%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

43%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

68%

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

50%

level

26%

Atlético Paso scores more

23%

UD San Fernando at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–2 Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat UD San Fernando 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.

UD San Fernando vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–2 Atlético Paso