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Atlético Paso vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
CANC
00:00
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 33Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso49%
×Draw26%
UD San Fernando25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.48
UD San Fernando
0.98

Atlético Paso creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
75%
Atlético Paso or UD San Fernando
74%
Draw or UD San Fernando
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
24%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
19%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
62%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
26%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
66%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
49%
level
26%
UD San Fernando scores more
25%

Atlético Paso at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Paso face UD San Fernando (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Atlético Paso hosting UD San Fernando. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Paso host UD San Fernando at Campo Municipal de El Paso.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.