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UD San Fernando vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arucas
Arucas
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando57%
×Draw24%
Arucas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.73
Arucas
0.89

UD San Fernando creates 94% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 96 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Arucas
1.06

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Arucas
1.46

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Arucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
81%
UD San Fernando or Arucas
76%
Draw or Arucas
43%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
32%
Arucas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
82%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
52%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
25%
Arucas 1+ goals
59%
Arucas 2+ goals
22%
Arucas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
75%
Arucas (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Arucas attack 1.06 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
57%
level
24%
Arucas scores more
19%

UD San Fernando at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Arucas

UD San Fernando and Arucas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.