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UD Ourense vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UD Ourense66%
×Draw20%
Pontevedra II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
2.08
Pontevedra II
0.84

UD Ourense creates 148% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
86%
UD Ourense or Pontevedra II
80%
Draw or Pontevedra II
34%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
41%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
87%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
61%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
34%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
57%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
21%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
82%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.08

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

UD Ourense scores more
66%
level
20%
Pontevedra II scores more
14%

UD Ourense at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Ourense 4 – 0 Pontevedra II

UD Ourense beat Pontevedra II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.