UD Ourense 3–1 Estradense: Result & Stats

UD Ourense

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Estradense

4/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

UD Ourense48%

×Draw25%

Estradense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD OurenseExpected goals in this matchEstradense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

UD Ourense

1.56

Estradense

1.10

UD Ourense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 109 away

1.74

creates per match

1.24

0.97

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

UD Ourense

1.74

Estradense

1.24

allows per match

UD Ourense

0.97

Estradense

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Estradense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Estradense →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw

73%

UD Ourense or Estradense

75%

Draw or Estradense

52%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+

25%

Estradense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

79%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

46%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

21%

Estradense 1+ goals

67%

Estradense 2+ goals

30%

Estradense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

64%

Estradense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Estradense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Estradense defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Estradense attack 1.24 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Ourense scores more

48%

level

25%

Estradense scores more

27%

UD Ourense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff