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UD Ourense vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
CANC
00:00
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

UD Ourense45%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruña II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.40
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.06

UD Ourense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 58 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
71%
UD Ourense or Deportivo La Coruña II
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
55%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
75%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
41%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UD Ourense scores more
45%
level
27%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
29%

UD Ourense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Ourense face Deportivo La Coruña II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with UD Ourense hosting Deportivo La Coruña II. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UD Ourense host Deportivo La Coruña II at Estadio O Couto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.