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UD Ourense vs Compostela — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Compostela
Compostela
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

UD Ourense39%
×Draw27%
Compostela34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.26
Compostela
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Compostela
1.34

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Compostela
0.78

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Compostela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Compostela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
66%
UD Ourense or Compostela
73%
Draw or Compostela
61%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
17%
Compostela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
72%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
36%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
13%
Compostela 1+ goals
69%
Compostela 2+ goals
32%
Compostela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
53%
Compostela (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Compostela away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Compostela defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.26

Compostela attack 1.34 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UD Ourense scores more
39%
level
27%
Compostela scores more
34%

UD Ourense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Compostela

UD Ourense beat Compostela 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.