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UD Ourense vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Choco
Choco
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

UD Ourense52%
×Draw25%
Choco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.58
Choco
0.95

UD Ourense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 59 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Choco
0.92

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Choco
1.42

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
77%
UD Ourense or Choco
75%
Draw or Choco
48%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
27%
Choco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
79%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
47%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
21%
Choco 1+ goals
61%
Choco 2+ goals
25%
Choco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
70%
Choco (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Choco attack 0.92 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UD Ourense scores more
52%
level
25%
Choco scores more
23%

UD Ourense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: UD Ourense 2–1 Choco

UD Ourense beat Choco 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.