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UD Ourense vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
6/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UD Ourense37%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo III37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.33
Celta de Vigo III
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.67
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

allows per match

UD Ourense
1.67
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Celta de Vigo III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
63%
UD Ourense or Celta de Vigo III
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo III
63%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
17%
Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
74%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
38%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
15%
Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
74%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
38%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
50%
Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.67 + Celta de Vigo III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + UD Ourense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UD Ourense scores more
37%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo III scores more
37%

UD Ourense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: UD Ourense 3–3 Celta de Vigo III

UD Ourense and Celta de Vigo III drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.