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UD Ourense vs Atlético Arteixo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Municipal de Oira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UD Ourense48%
×Draw25%
Atlético Arteixo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.55
Atlético Arteixo
1.09

UD Ourense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 67 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Atlético Arteixo
1.22

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Atlético Arteixo
1.36

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Atlético Arteixo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
73%
UD Ourense or Atlético Arteixo
75%
Draw or Atlético Arteixo
52%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
79%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
46%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Atlético Arteixo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.22 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Ourense scores more
48%
level
25%
Atlético Arteixo scores more
27%

UD Ourense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Atlético Arteixo

UD Ourense beat Atlético Arteixo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Oira in Ourense.