UD Ourense 5–1 Arzúa: Result & Stats

UD Ourense

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arzúa

Antón Guisande 90+1', 86'

Labrada 79'

Yelco Alfaya 60', 48'

Santi Taboada 40'

10/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Municipal de Oira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

UD Ourense56%

×Draw24%

Arzúa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD OurenseExpected goals in this matchArzúa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.92

UD Ourense

1.73

Arzúa

0.92

UD Ourense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

1.74

creates per match

0.86

0.97

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

UD Ourense

1.74

Arzúa

0.86

allows per match

UD Ourense

0.97

Arzúa

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Arzúa →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw

80%

UD Ourense or Arzúa

76%

Draw or Arzúa

44%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+

31%

Arzúa wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

82%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

52%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

25%

Arzúa 1+ goals

60%

Arzúa 2+ goals

23%

Arzúa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

74%

Arzúa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Arzúa attack 0.86 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

UD Ourense scores more

56%

level

24%

Arzúa scores more

20%

UD Ourense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Santi Taboada

48'

Yelco Alfaya

56'

Antón Guisande← Luismi Rincón

60'

Yelco Alfaya

67'

José Pérez← Jesús Ares

71'

David Pereiro← Álex Rodríguez

71'

Manu Vilariño← Santi Taboada

72'

R. de los Santos← David González

77'

Manu Mosquera← Chucas

79'

Varo Fernández← Martín López

79'

Pablo Parrilla← David Rojo

79'

86'

90+1'

Arzúa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Jorge de Dios

56'▲Antón Guisande←▼Luismi Rincón

67'▲José Pérez←▼Jesús Ares

79'▲Varo Fernández←▼Martín López

79'▲Pablo Parrilla←▼David Rojo

UD Ourense substitutes

GuisandePérezFernándezParrilla

Manager: Chus Baleato

71'▲David Pereiro←▼Álex Rodríguez

71'▲Manu Vilariño←▼Santi Taboada

72'▲R. de los Santos←▼David González

77'▲Manu Mosquera←▼Chucas

Arzúa substitutes

PereiroVilariñoSantosMosquera

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: UD Ourense 5–1 Arzúa

UD Ourense beat Arzúa 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 12, 2023.

Goals: Santi Taboada (40'), Yelco Alfaya (48', 60'), Labrada (79'), Antón Guisande (86', 90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Oira in Ourense.

UD Ourense vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: UD Ourense 5–1 Arzúa