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UD Logroñés vs Tudelano — League #876 2026

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tudelano
Tudelano
C. Benitez 90' (pen)
T. Bouguettaya 58'
G. Alonso 41'
10/25/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

UD Logroñés59%
×Draw23%
Tudelano18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.78
Tudelano
0.85

UD Logroñés creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
2.57
Tudelano
1.00

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.71
Tudelano
1.00

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Tudelano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
82%
UD Logroñés or Tudelano
77%
Draw or Tudelano
41%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
34%
Tudelano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
83%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
53%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
26%
Tudelano 1+ goals
57%
Tudelano 2+ goals
21%
Tudelano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
77%
Tudelano (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 2.57 + Tudelano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tudelano attack 1.00 + UD Logroñés defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
59%
level
23%
Tudelano scores more
18%

UD Logroñés at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
G. Alonso
58'
T. Bouguettaya
66'
A. Parada Gil
90'
C. BenitezPenalty
UD
Tudelano
Juan Lasheras
Manager: Juan Lasheras
Oskar Vales
Manager: Oskar Vales

Match Recap: UD Logroñés vs Tudelano

Tudelano beat UD Logroñés 2-1 in League #876 on October 25, 2025.

Goals: G. Alonso (41'), T. Bouguettaya (58'), C. Benitez (90' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.