UD Logroñés 1–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

L. Acevedo 83'

11/15/2020

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

UD Logroñés34%

×Draw30%

Sabadell36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.04

UD Logroñés

1.00

Sabadell

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

0.71

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

UD Logroñés

0.71

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

UD Logroñés

1.14

Sabadell

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw

64%

UD Logroñés or Sabadell

70%

Draw or Sabadell

66%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

13%

Sabadell wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

63%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

26%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

8%

Sabadell 1+ goals

65%

Sabadell 2+ goals

28%

Sabadell 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

49%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 0.71 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sabadell attack 0.95 + UD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

UD Logroñés scores more

34%

level

30%

Sabadell scores more

36%

Sabadell at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Pablo Bobadilla

UD Logroñés · D

7.5

Match Events

31'

Angel Martinez

38'

Zelu← Paulino

56'

Gorka Pérez

59'

David Astals← Juan Hernández

62'

Jaime Sierra← Jon Errasti

63'

Roni← Rubén Martínez

77'

Víctor García← Óscar Rubio

83'

L. Acevedo↳ Iñaki

86'

Ander Vitoria← L. Acevedo

86'

Gorka Guruzeta← Pedro Capó

86'

Adri Cuevas← Iker Undabarrena

86'

Xavi Boniquet← Ángel Martínez

87'

Víctor García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UDSabadell

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots7

3Corners1

18Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots7

2On Target0

8Off Target6

2Blocked1

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

392Total Passes516

292Accurate Passes429

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2