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UD Logroñés vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
12/20/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17
Big match
49%
UD Logroñés
model favours
49%28%23%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés49%
×Draw28%
Real Unión23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.35
Real Unión
0.83

UD Logroñés creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
77%
UD Logroñés or Real Unión
72%
Draw or Real Unión
51%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
23%
Real Unión wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
74%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
39%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión 1+ goals
56%
Real Unión 2+ goals
20%
Real Unión 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
68%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Unión attack 0.98 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
49%
level
28%
Real Unión scores more
23%

UD Logroñés at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • UD Logroñés have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés vs Real Unión — Match Preview

UD Logroñés face Real Unión on December 20, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.