Real Unión 1–1 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

UD Logroñés

2/12/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Unión44%

×Draw27%

UD Logroñés29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Real Unión

1.40

UD Logroñés

1.08

Real Unión creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

1.46

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

UD Logroñés

1.06

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

UD Logroñés

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

71%

Real Unión or UD Logroñés

73%

Draw or UD Logroñés

56%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

21%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

75%

Real Unión 2+ goals

41%

Real Unión 3+ goals

17%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

66%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

29%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

60%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Unión scores more

44%

level

27%

UD Logroñés scores more

29%

Real Unión at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff