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UD Logroñés vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
15:00
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
4/11/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32
38%
UD Logroñés
model favours
38%33%29%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
34%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés38%
×Draw33%
Ponferradina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
0.96
Ponferradina
0.81

UD Logroñés creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
71%
UD Logroñés or Ponferradina
67%
Draw or Ponferradina
62%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
14%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
62%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
25%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
7%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
56%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
19%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
56%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
38%
level
33%
Ponferradina scores more
29%

UD Logroñés at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
Ponferradina
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés face Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with UD Logroñés hosting Ponferradina. Match starts April 11, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.