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UD Logroñés vs Ponferradina — Segunda División 2018

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
12/2/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

UD Logroñés35%
×Draw30%
Ponferradina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.05
Ponferradina
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 84 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
0.71
Ponferradina
0.94

allows per match

UD Logroñés
1.14
Ponferradina
1.40

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
65%
UD Logroñés or Ponferradina
70%
Draw or Ponferradina
65%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
14%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
65%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
28%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
9%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
65%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
50%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 0.71 + Ponferradina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ponferradina attack 0.94 + UD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
35%
level
30%
Ponferradina scores more
35%

UD Logroñés at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: UD Logroñés 1–2 Ponferradina

Ponferradina beat UD Logroñés 2-1 in Segunda División on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.